Manchester City weaker so the Premier League title might be bound for Arsenal
What do Arsenal need to win the Premier League?
For the first time since the summer of 2007, I genuinely believe Arsenal can win the Premier League this season. I’m not saying we “will” win the league, just that we can. So, how do we do it?
89, 93, 86, 99 & 98 are the points total of the champions over the past five seasons. That’s an average of 93 points. A figure that has been a maximum for the past three seasons. Let’s work on the basis that 94 points will secure the Premier League. So, where do Arsenal get those points from?
Luton Town and Sheffield Utd is a “must obtain” 12 points.
Then you have the following “relegation threatened” teams: Burnley, Everton, Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth and Wolves. That’s 10 fixtures and 30 points available. Arsenal really need to flat track bully their way towards another 30 points. But this is football, so let’s allow for a rogue draw somewhere along the line, so 28 points. We’re now on 40 points.
Looking towards the “middling teams” who will be hoping to look upwards rather than downwards and you have West Ham, Crystal Palace, Fulham, Brentford, Aston Villa and Brighton. These 12 fixtures offer an opportunity for a further 36 points but there is definitely a step up in quality here compared to the last group of opponents listed. 6 home wins, 3 away wins and 3 away draws (let’s say Aston Villa, Brighton and one other) would give us a further 30 points. We’re now on 70 points.
Ok, so 24 points still required and six teams left to play.
We’ll need to match the 6 points we took off Sp*rs last season. 18 points still needed. Can we match the 8 points we took off Newcastle and Liverpool last season? 10 points still needed.
Can we match the 9 points we took off Man Utd and Chelsea last season? 1 point still needed.
Then we have the two fixtures against Man City.
It’s a huge ask. But, it’s not impossible.What do Arsenal need to win the Premier League?
For the first time since the summer of 2007, I genuinely believe Arsenal can win the Premier League this season. I’m not saying we “will” win the league, just that we can. So, how do we do it?
89, 93, 86, 99 & 98 are the points total of the champions over the past five seasons. That’s an average of 93 points. A figure that has been a maximum for the past three seasons. Let’s work on the basis that 94 points will secure the Premier League. So, where do Arsenal get those points from?
Luton Town and Sheffield Utd is a “must obtain” 12 points.
Then you have the following “relegation threatened” teams: Burnley, Everton, Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth and Wolves. That’s 10 fixtures and 30 points available. Arsenal really need to flat track bully their way towards another 30 points. But this is football, so let’s allow for a rogue draw somewhere along the line, so 28 points. We’re now on 40 points.
Looking towards the “middling teams” who will be hoping to look upwards rather than downwards and you have West Ham, Crystal Palace, Fulham, Brentford, Aston Villa and Brighton. These 12 fixtures offer an opportunity for a further 36 points but there is definitely a step up in quality here compared to the last group of opponents listed. 6 home wins, 3 away wins and 3 away draws (let’s say Aston Villa, Brighton and one other) would give us a further 30 points. We’re now on 70 points.
Ok, so 24 points still required and six teams left to play.
We’ll need to match the 6 points we took off Sp*rs last season. 18 points still needed. Can we match the 8 points we took off Newcastle and Liverpool last season? 10 points still needed.
Can we match the 9 points we took off Man Utd and Chelsea last season? 1 point still needed.
Then we have the two fixtures against Man City.
It’s a huge ask. But, it’s not impossible.
Arsenal for the title? Why not?
Winners: Arsenal – They’ve kept the fundamentals and added wisely, should be ready to push on with last year’s experience.
2nd, 3rd, 4th: United, City, Liverpool – United are in a similar boat to Arsenal, and now have a goal scorer, but may not be the finished article ready for a title push. City have lost a few match winners, and so far look weaker than last season, plus their motivation could potentially be diminished. Liverpool should bounce back but they still appear dodgy at the back, but more than enough to get them in the top four.
5th, 6th, 7th, 8th: Chelsea, Newcastle, Spurs, Villa – No European football should bode Chelsea well, but Poch has a massive job turning those players into a team. Champions League football, teams knowing how they play combined with some moderate upgrades makes for a challenging season. Spurs should improve, but this guess is based on Harry staying. Villa in theory should be capable of achieving better than last year, but like Newcastle, teams will know what to expect this year. Realistically, all of these teams are interchangeable/reversible.
18th, 19th, 20th: After today’s news and this summer’s transfers, I cannot see Wolves surviving. Could O’Neil do it again? Does lightning strike twice? Sheffield United don’t look strong, and have recruited poorly. Luton are here just for the ride it appears.
Relegation survivors: Forest, Bournemouth, Everton
Mid-table/pushing for Europe: Brighton, West Ham, Fulham, Brentford, Palace, Burnley
Best Signing: Mac Allister. All he needs to do is replicate last year’s form and get Liverpool back into the top four for this to be a roaring success. Equals as a bargain if so.
Worst Signing: Havertz. Won’t be the CM they need, won’t be the backup striker they need, won’t be the CAM they need. He could be the 2023 version of Veron to Chelsea.
Top scorer: Haaland.
PFA player of the year: Odegaard
First (Second?) manager to be sacked: Paul Heckingbottom
Champions League winner: Bayern with Kane, Real with Mbappe, or City.
Most Excited about: Seeing United with an actual striker playing good quality football again.
Title: Not City. They’re weaker than last season, at 32 and picking up more injuries, I think De Bruyne’s best seasons are behind him and I think they’ll lack that extra few % in terms of hunger after 3 in a row and the treble. Will still be the best team on their day, but can see them doing daft, complacent things like losing to Everton and/or Palace. Right now, I’d say Arsenal, but could be United, Liverpool or going rogue, Chelsea (would need an alignment of stars, but playing once a week can be huge like they did for the title under Conte).
Top 8: Arsenal, City, United, Chelsea, Liverpool, Spurs, Villa, Newcastle
Relegated: Luton, Wolves, Sheff United. Luton and Wolves bottom two and adrift. Don’t think it’ll be as tight as recent seasons.
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Champions League: City.
Europa League: Villa
Where will Everton finish: 16th
POTY: If they win the league, Saka, because he’s their best player
Top Scorer: Haaland, but with less than last season
Best Signing: I think Mount will do really well, Mac Allister looks annoyingly decent value, Pau Torres could do very well. Rice might be the difference for Arsenal. Nkunku looks tasty but now sadly injured. Barnes & Maddison went for good value fees.
Flop: Havertz is the obvious shout, and I have a bad feeling that Onana is going to drop a couple of bollocks early doors, but Sandro Tonali screams flop to me. Milan fan, Milan tattoo, cried when they told him they were selling him, and he’s traded Milan for Bigg Market.
First manager gone: I’d said Lopetegui, but as he’s already gone, I might double down on Wolves and say O’Neil. They look a right old state and I’d very surprised if he makes Xmas. Don’t think there’ll be anywhere near as much managerial turnover as last season.
Hopes for my team this season: the Qataris get tired of waiting and f**k off. On the pitch, 80 points, QF of the CL and if I’m being greedy, a cup.
Anything else: Newcastle to suffer from having CL football for the first time in ages. Think they’ll do okay in Europe, but will affect their league form. Villa to carry on getting better under Emery and Spurs to get better as the season wears on. If they start playing football, after Conte & Jose, they could well be entertaining in a 4-3 either way style. Brighton to disappoint and be midtable. Maguire to score against United at the London Stadium. Was worried about a resurgent Liverpool, but I think that Saudi double deal for Henderson & Fabinho might have screwed them.
Or Liverpool?
OMG I feel so excited about the season to come ( and more generally I think we’re at the beginning of a more positive, progressive phase as a species) that I can’t resist the ‘predictions ‘.
Prem.
For me, it’s too close to call but…
Liv – 87pts
Arsn – 86
City – 85
Man U – 85
Newc – 84
Dark horse — Chelsea.
Surprise star — Garnacho
Europe — English clean sweep. City, Liv, Villa.
Oh, sorry, hang on. I forgot to factor in UEFA bias. Make that Real, Villarreal, Osasuna.
Relegation.
Surely the gods of narrative are on Luton’s side so…
Wolves
Bournemouth
Forest
The cups
Er… Newcastle, City or Utd ( sorry)
And finally the big one. (According to Liv and Chelsea fans in the last few years)… the world* championship! I’m gonna stick my neck out and go for City.
Big love beautiful humans
Hartley MCFC Somerset (I consider it an honour to be published in this MB considering the outstanding quality of so many contributers. Promise, last one for a while)
Wolves not doomed, actually
So I may be in the minority here but I don’t think Wolves are going to have as bad a season as everyone thinks….
Lopetegui made it clear he didn’t want to be at the club so yes get rid of him. Lemina, Gomes and Cunha all looked sharp against Rennes. Neves was obviously too good for Wolves but they genuinely look a better team without him. I don’t see them being one of the teams getting relegated.
I’m a Huddersfield fan but I also predict that they’ll surprise everyone and do well too
Good job I’m not a gambling woman isn’t it???
Sara HTFC
That Chelsea kit is banging, actually
Various articles on F365 have criticised Chelsea’s new home kit.
Can I just say that I (and all my Chelsea supporting mates) think it’s actually a decent effort, and a nice 90’s throwback / cup winners cup homage.
So, either we don’t know fashion or everybody at F365 Tower doesn’t.
